FB, from Dyfi this morning;
Bore da
Let's apply some science to this.
Of the 36 established UK breeding ospreys in the 'public domain' that were back at this stage, 12th April, last year, nine have yet to return. That's precisely 25% of them. Of those, six are 10 days 'late' or more.
On average, 92% of established breeding birds return successfully every year, so 8% die. There are 'good' years and 'bad' years, but there's no way that this 8% mortality rate is suddenly 25% this year.
So what's the reason? We know that severe weather further down the migration path has been awful this spring - so suddenly we have an answer for the 25% late birds.
Add to this that 2017 seems to have been an 'early' year for arrivals, so these birds are not as late as we make them out to be.
Glesni's average (last four years) arrival date is around 5th April, so today she is exactly a week passed this; an amount of time you could reasonably put down to the known weather disruption further south. So in reality, knowing what we do about Glesni's historical arrival times and disruptive weather patterns, we would actually expect her back today or over the next two or three days.
We're not saying all of these nine 'late' birds are safe and well, but most of them will be.
There's warm weather coming over the next few days, blowing up from the south. Our prediction is that most of these nine birds will arrive safe and sound over the next week.
Let's hope Glesni is one of them.
Chin up.
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